A Nuclear Order Under Strain: Why the Global System Is Becoming Fragile

Credits : The Hindu Editorial

Recent announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump on resuming nuclear tests have added fresh uncertainty to an already fragile framework.

Nuclear Stockpiles and Non-Proliferation: A Brief Overview:-

• Global nuclear arsenals have reduced from 65,000 weapons (late 1970s) to less than 12,500 today.

  
  

• The number of nuclear-armed states has remained at nine, far below earlier fears of two dozen.

  
  

• These nine include five nuclear-weapon states under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) — the U.S., Russia, the U.K., France, and China — and four outside the NPT: India, Pakistan, Israel, North Korea.

  
  

Despite these accomplishments, the international nuclear order is visibly weakening.

Trump’s Call for “Testing”: A Trigger for Instability:-

On October 30, 2025, President Trump announced that the U.S. would begin testing its nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China.

Uncertainty immediately followed:

• It was unclear whether he meant explosive nuclear testing or non-explosive systems testing.

  
  

• Nuclear facilities actually fall under the U.S. Department of Energy, not the “Department of War” he referred to.

  
  

• Later clarifications suggested “non-critical” system tests, but ambiguity remains.

  
  

Why this matters

Any U.S. move toward explosive testing would likely push Russia and China to follow suit — and eventually trigger a wider series of tests by other nuclear powers.

Ongoing Modernisation: No State Is Standing Still

All three major powers are building or testing new delivery systems:

• Russia: recently tested the Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidonunderwater nuclear-powered torpedo.

  
  

• China: developing hypersonic missiles; tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic glide vehicle in 2021.

  
  

• United States: producing new low-yield warheads such as the B61-13 and W76-2; developing a new nuclear-armed cruise missile.

  
  

Yet, until now, all three have refrained from explosive testing.

Background: What Is the CTBT and Why Has It Not Entered Into Force?

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), 1996

• Negotiated to ban all nuclear explosive tests.

  
  

• 187 countries have signed, but the treaty requires 44 specific states with nuclear technology to ratify it.

  
  

• Several key states — including the U.S., China, Israel, Iran, Egypt — have not ratified.

  
  

• Russia ratified but withdrew in 2023.

  
  

• India, Pakistan, North Korea neither signed nor ratified.

  
  

Why CTBT is stuck

• The treaty bans “nuclear explosion” but lacks a precise technical definition, mainly because the U.S. opposed defining “zero yield”.

  
  

• The major powers conducted thousands of tests earlier, giving them a data advantage; others, like China with only 47 tests, would benefit disproportionately from resumed testing.

Emerging Risks: Low-Yield Weapons and Dual-Use Systems

New low-yield nuclear warheads and dual-capable hypersonic systems make distinguishing conventional from nuclear attacks harder.

This increases the risk of:

• Miscalculation

• Rapid escalation

• Erosion of the longstanding nuclear taboo

Shrinking Arms Control Architecture

The New START Treaty — the last remaining U.S.-Russia arms control agreement — expires on February 4, 2026, with no negotiations underway.

Meanwhile:

• China’s arsenal is growing rapidly and could cross 1,000 warheads by 2030.

  
  

• An arms race among the major powers is already visible.

  
  

If explosive testing resumes, the arms control framework built over decades could collapse.

Implications for India and Pakistan

India has observed a voluntary moratorium on nuclear testing since 1998.

If major powers resume explosive tests:

• India will likely test again to validate thermonuclear and boosted-fission designs, used only once in 1998.

  
  

• Pakistan will inevitably follow, and China will gain the most due to limited previous test data.

This would accelerate regional instability.

The Risk of Collapse of the Global Nuclear Order

If the U.S. resumes explosive testing:

• The CTBT norm collapses.

• The NPT-based non-proliferation regime weakens.

• More states may seek nuclear weapons.

• The taboo against nuclear use could erode.

  
  

The United Nations Secretary-General has warned that nuclear risks are already alarmingly high, urging all nations to avoid steps that could lead to catastrophic escalation.

Conclusion: The Need for a New Nuclear Framework

The global nuclear order, shaped by 20th-century geopolitics, is no longer adequate. The challenge ahead is to design a system that reflects today’s fractured world while preserving the most important principle — nuclear weapons must never be used again.